Sociology text books tell us that human beings are social creatures and, a few oddities aside, prefer to be in groups rather than alone. The same holds true for opinions. People say they call it like the see it but in reality they call it like they hear it. If a person hears opinions from several different sources then often times it is deemed true…and safe. A safe opinion is one that you can state in most areas and no one will call you out on it, because most people have heard the same thing. Instead of devoting ones time to finding out if it is indeed true, why not spend the efforts on coming up with
snarky, clever, ways to give the opinion. Who cares if it’s true or not? Let’s just take pot shots and bask in the warm glow of group approval.
Here are a few examples of what I am talking about.
• The Inuit have an overly large number of words for snow.
• Saturday Night Live isn’t funny anymore.
• Sugar causes hyperactivity in children.
It does matter if it is true or not, we know we can get away with stating these kinds of opinions because everyone else says the same thing.
Let me add one more to the mix…
• Jason Kidd is old, broken down, and not worth $25 million for 3 years.
It’s up to you, dear reader, to make up your mind about the first three misconceptions I listed. But, I’m going into detail on the 4th one about Mr. Kidd. It’s wrong and I am going to tell you why.
Jason Kidd came to the Mavericks via trade with New Jersey half way through the 2007-2008 season. Devin Harris was the 5th pick in 2004 draft and he's a very fast point guard. He was a big reason the Mavericks were able to pull off a game 7 win against the Spurs in 2006. He is also 10 years younger than Jason Kidd. Bad idea right? Why trade a young up and comer for an older player who is slowing down? And if you do trade for the older timer, why on earth sign them to a three year extension for $25 million?
Let’s take a look at the output of the starting point guards for all sixteen playoff teams last season, plus the stats of Devin Harris and Steve Nash (neither of whom made the post season). For the rest of this article I will be referring to Jason Kidd’s rank among these 18 players unless otherwise noted.
In this select group, Jason Kidd ranks dead last in points per game. He is also the oldest player (born in 1973) on the list by a year (Steve Nash was born in 1974). So apparently he is an old point guard that cannot score. But let’s look further.
Assists per game is a very important stat for point guards. Last year Jason Kidd ranked 4th. Assists per turnovers is another important stat for point guards. Jason Kidd had the #1 assist to turn over ration out of all 18. He ranks #2 in steals per game (2.0). He is #4 in steals per turnover. He is 8th in efficiency in the playoffs . He is #1 in rebounds per game. He is 8th in +/-, which is close to middle of the pack but it’s the best on the entire Dallas Mavericks team. When he is on the court for the Mavs, good things happen. Jason Kidd does take some flak for not being a great shooter. Fair enough, he is 17th on the list in field goal percentage. He cannot drive and score like he used to. He does take more threes now but so what? He makes over 40% of them. His three point shooting ranks him 7th in our list, not even in the top 5, but that percentage is the best 3 point percentage on the Mavericks team, even better than Dirk. Sure he takes more 3 point shots, he makes more too.
For double-doubles among all guards in the league, Jason Kidd is 6th with 19. That’s only 1 behind Dwyane Wade, but it’s 3 ahead of Devin Harris, 4 ahead of Rajon Rondo and Tony Parker. Kobe Bryant only had 8 double doubles for the entire season.
Let’s look at triple doubles. Not much of a field here. Only fourteen players in the entire league had at least 1 triple double. That’s how hard they are to come by. Old, broken down Jason Kidd had 3. That’s good for third in the entire league behind only Chris Paul and LeBron James.
For a guy who can’t play defense, Jason Kidd sure manages to rack up some decent. Like I said earlier, he is #2 in steals per game on our list of 18. He’s #5 among all guards in the NBA in blocks per game (.5). Half a block per game may not look like much, but in the tightly packed Western Conference, a block every other game can make a difference.
Yes, it will be hard for Jason Kidd to guard all star point guards like Deron Williams, Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul. But those guys are on play off caliber teams and the entire league has a problem staying in front of them. Especially Chris Paul. He’s the one guard that cannot be stopped by anyone. But even Chris Paul can have trouble guarding other top point guards. For example: Chauncey Billups in the playoffs. In the first round, Chauncey Billups and Nuggets did well against the Chris Paul led Hornets, beating them in 5. The Nuggets also beat the Mavs in 5, but consider this: the Mavs had just beaten the Spurs, a higher seed opponent, and old man Kidd should have been more fatigued in the second round of the playoffs. If Billups did well against Chris Paul he was absolutely going to torch the defensively challenged Kidd, right? Nope. Billups had fewer points, assists and rebounds per game while his turnovers per game went up in the second round. Now, it ultimately did not make any difference, the Mavs still lost. Jason Kidd didn’t exactly light it up during the second round, but they didn’t lose that series because the Denver back court ran roughshod over Jason Kidd. They lost because the Nuggets were the better team.
The Nets have not made the playoffs with Devin Harris at the helm after making it for six straight years with Jason Kidd. The Nets were so bad this past season that they were 5 games out of the 8th spot in the East. Detroit( losing record of 39-43) made the 8th spot. Sure, Devin Harris scored 21.3 points per game which is impressive and way better than Jason Kidd, but somebody has to take the shots on a bad team. That doesn’t make them a great player. Jason Kidd had 26% more assists, almost twice as many rebounds, 25% more steals, 26% fewer turnovers. He also played 12 more games than Devin Harris did last year. What’s that? Yep, the old timer Jason Kidd played more games than Devin Harris during the regular season, which brings me to the topic of durability.
Devin Harris has been playing pro basketball for six seasons. He’s already missed 64 games. Jason Kidd has played 17 seasons and missed 95. Three time as many seasons, but only 1/3 more missed games. In fact, since Devin Harris came into the league, an aging Jason Kidd has only missed 23 games (while making the playoffs each of those years). That is one third as many missed games as Devin Harris. If durability is what you want, you want Jason Kidd.
So by now I think you will agree with me that Jason Kidd can play at a high level and has done so for a long, long time. It’s amazing that he can have such a drop off in points per game and still have such an impact.
Best PG in the league? Nope. No one can touch Chris Paul. There’s also Deron Williams, Tony Parker, and Chauncy Billups. Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose are both great players as well. But Jason Kidd is right in there. He is arguably a top 5 point guard in this league. At the very least he’s the 7th best. So why all that money? $25 million for three years? Ridiculous right? Well, of all 18 players on our list, Jason Kidd is 10th in expected money for the next three years. I had to project some years for a few players, but I doubt he’s higher than 9th. Most likely he will drop to 11th or 12th once all the free agent signings are complete. Jason Kidd will be nearly 40 years old when he reaches the end of this deal. Most likely he will retire then. His game may drop off a little more, but I doubt it will drop much. Great point guards have a longevity to them that is simply amazing. Here’s a list of point guard greats and the length of their careers:
• Bob Cousy-20 years (1950-1970)
• Oscar Robertson-14 years (1960-1974)
• Walt Frazier-13 years (1967-1980)
• Magic Johnson-17 years(1979-1996)
• Isaiah Thomas-13 years (1981-1974)
• John Stockton-17 years (1987-2003)
• Mark Jackson-17 years (1987-2004)
• Gary Payton-17 years(1990-2007)
• Steve Nash-13 years (1996-present)
Many of the players I just listed made major contributions to their teams until the day the retired. Steve Nash is still contributing. And speaking of Steve Nash, he is only one year younger than Jason Kidd. He’s had the same kind of “can’t play defense” things said about him. He will make over half of Jason Kidd’s three year deal in 2009-2010 alone. I bet he has at least one more contract in him. Think it’ll be less than $25 million for three years? I don’t.
I could go on, but I think I have made my point. If you still think it was a bad deal to sign Jason Kidd for another three years, very well. Part of the fun of sports is to argue over stuff like this. I still think you are wrong, but then I picked against Orlando every series during the playoffs so I must have my blind spots too.
One last thing. I’d like to comment on the Dallas Mavericks front office. Donnie Nelson has done some great things for this organization. Not every trade, signing or draft has been a great one. But the Mavs are in the playoffs, consistently after a decade of finishing near the bottom. How consistent are the Mavericks? Since the 2001 season, only two teams have made the playoffs every year. Those two teams would be the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks. It’s true the Mavericks finished 6th last year. But things are very interesting in the Western Conference right now. It appears that, thanks to the Lakers farm team (also known as the Memphis Grizzlies), no one can touch the Lakers. They finished an easy 1st in the West. But it sure was tight from 2-8. A total of six games separate the 2nd seed from the 8th seed in the West. The spread in the Eastern Conference from 2nd to 8th was 23 games. Every little bit helps in the West. An ill-timed three game skid can send you from opening the playoffs on your home court to barely making it in at all. Just ask the Rockets. To succeed in the post season (especially in the West) you need smart, consistent players. Mark Cuban did the right thing by signing Jason Kidd for another three years.
And for $25 million, I say it was a bargain.
Data was compiled using the following sites:
